Presidential elections in Serbia: Russia or the European Union?

21 January 2008

During the first round of the presidential elections in Serbia yesterday ultra-nationalist Tomislav Nikolić from the Serbian Radical Party received 39 % of the votes, against 35 % for pro-Western Boris Tadić from the Democratic Party. The estimated 61 % turnout is exceptionally high in comparison to the 48 % turn-out four years ago; this shows the importance of the elections for the future of Serbia.

Since none of the candidates received more than 50 % of the votes, there will be a run-off on 3 February. The most important question is whether the 26 % of the people that voted for one of the seven other candidates will vote for Nikolić or Tadić. In 2004 the same two candidates ran in the second round for the presidency; Tadić won that run-off with 53 % of the votes.

What does this mean for one of the most important issues: the status of Kosovo? Both presidential candidates oppose Kosovo independence. There is, however, a big difference. Tadić's strategy the last four years has been to prepare Serbia for European Union membership, while Nikolić's main focus is on Russia, historically Serbia's biggest ally. This is also the split in the question on the future of Kosovo. The EU and the US are in favour of the independence of Kosovo, while Russia opposes this. Although it remains a guess what exactly will happen if one of the candidates becomes president and Kosovo claims independence, it is more likely that violence erupts when Nikolić is in power. The coming two weeks will be very important for the future of Serbia and possibly also for the stability on the Western Balkans.
Suzanne Jansen, IPP (Dutch Institute for Political Participation)