Parliamentary Elections in Montenegro

On September 10, 2006 the first parliamentary elections after the proclamation of independence were held in the Republic of Montenegro. Five parties, six coalitions and one group of citizens (all together 747 candidates) were contesting for the 81 seats in the unicameral Montenegrin Parliament. The ruling coalition of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) had to compete with a (relatively un-united) opposition: the former pro-union coalition of the Socialist People’s Party (SNP), the People’s Party (NS), the Democratic Party (DSS), the Serb List consisting of the Serbian People’s Party (SNS) and a number of smaller pro-Serbian parties, the newly established Movement for Changes (PzP), the coalition of the Liberal Party (LP) and the Bosniak Party (BS) and the Civic List (GL) consisting of the Civic Party (GP) and the Green Party (ZS). Additionally, four lists were targeting the voters of the Albanian community in Montenegro.

No surprise

The ruling coalition party of prime minister Milo Djukanovic won 41 seats in parliament. Since the DPS and SDP can count in the majority of daily political issues on the support of the two Albanian Parties, the Bosniak and the Liberal Party that means a very comfortable majority. This election outcome is not very surprising. Only four months after the - for the ruling coalition successful - referendum on state status, Djukanovic's coalition succeeded in monopolizing the issue of Montenegrin integration into Europe.

The Montenegrin icon

Montenegro’s way to independence is closely linked to one person: Milo Djukanovic, the prime minister of Montenegro and the man who had dominated Montenegrin politics over the last 15 years. Born in the town of Niksic in 1962 as the son of a judge, he presents a typical descendant of the middle class in the former socialist Yugoslavia. Already as a student of economics, he became an influential member of the youth organization of the League of Yugoslavian Communists. Starting a professional party career immediately after his studies, he was seen as ‘one of Milosevic’s boys’ in Montenegro during and after the loss of Montenegro’s independence, during the ‘anti-bureaucratic’ revolution in the eighties.

Dissociation

But from 1993 onwards, Djukanovic dissociated himself more and more from Slobodan Milosevic, mainly due to developments in Serbia-Montenegro itself. This political struggle culminated in 1996 into a real (media) fight between Djukanovic and Milosevic’s wife Mira Markovic, who intended to put members of her left-wing party JUL in key positions in Montenegro. Shortly after the clash with Mira Markovic, the accusations concerning Djukanovic’s involvement in tobacco smuggling in cooperation with the Italian mafia emerged in the Serbian and Croatian yellow press. These rumours had so much impact on the West that an Italian prosecutor even started investigations into this issue, although he failed in finding any evidence.

The Democratic Party of Socialists

As a result of the dispute between Djukanovic and Milosevic, Djukanovic’s party, the DPS (which was the successor of the Montenegrin branch of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia), split in 1997 into two factions. The branch led by Djukanovic prevailed and he became the president of the party and the prime minister of Montenegro. Since then, the DPS has ruled with different coalition partners (with the SDP as its main coalition partner) and has held many important positions throughout the Republic. The DPS concentrates mainly on economic reform and privatization and an overall reform of society according to European standards.

Independence

As early as 2002, Djukanovic and his followers were already making attempts to leave the federation with Serbia. This intention was not fed by any national/ethnic motivation, but by pure political and economic pragmatism. They reasoned that it would be much easier to come through the difficult phases of system transition with a state like Montenegro and its 672.656 inhabitants, than together with Serbia, its 8 million people and its entire heavy industrial heritage from former socialist times. This logic seemed to be quite convincing for many Montenegrins.

Moratorium

Under international pressure, the so-called ‘Belgrade Agreement’ created a Confederation between Serbia and Montenegro, however, as a successor of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and a three year moratorium was placed on holding a referendum on independence from the Union. The supporters of Montenegrin independence used the time of the moratorium quite well. With assistance from international organizations, they were persistently working on the reform of their state bureaucracy and reforms in the economic field. With the introduction of the Euro as their only currency, they succeeded in keeping the Serbian inflation out of Montenegro. And with the revival of tourism in the coastal area, they improved the income of the small republic.

Elections

All this made it difficult for the opposition parties to find substantial campaign issues for the parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2006. Themes like European integration, the re-organization of the school and health system and privatization were monopolized by the ruling coalition. Inter-ethnic issues were nearly absent from the campaign, apart from the Serb parties, which based their campaign on the defence of Serbs’ rights. As a result, some of the opposition parties reduced themselves to the critics of the ruling coalition, accusing them mainly of corruption or ‘selling’ Montenegro to foreign investors.

Rumours

Immediately after the elections, prime minister Djukanovic invited all opposition parties to take part in the new government and to take ‘responsibility for the European future of Montenegro’, an offer that was largely rejected. In the mean time, the Montenegrin president Filip Vujanovic let the public know that he intends to candidate Milo Djukanovic for another four years’ term as prime minister, after rumours had started circulating that Djukanovic himself was thinking of retiring from politics.

Challenge

The cause for these rumours might be a potential change in the political landscape of Montenegro. With these elections, the first real political challenge appeared at the horizon. The new ‘Party for Changes’ of Nebojsa Medojevic won immediately 11 seats in parliament. Just like Djukanovic’s DPS, this party is a proponent of the reform and modernization of the Montenegrin society according to European standards, but during the election campaign it mainly targeted the relationship between Montenegrin business circles (who have supported Djukanovic in majority until now) and political elites and the fact that the majority of foreign private investments are of (possibly doubtful) Russian origin.

Redundant?

The more the mission of Milo Djukanovic - to bring Montenegro back to Europe through the development of a modern democratic society - might come true, the more he himself might become redundant, a fact that the rationalist Djukanovic is more than aware of. And he will not be the one to oppose future developments. On the other hand, he is an iconic figure for a lot of citizens (especially after the successful referendum on independence of May this year) and is considered by many as the man who prevented the outbreak of a civil war in Montenegro with his sensible approach in 1998/99 and who guarantees the entrance of Montenegro into the European Union. So it is to be expected, that Milo Djukanovic will not step down from the political stage before Montenegro has regained its place in Europe.

Tatjana Meijvogel-Volk, Instituut voor Publiek en Politiek, Amsterdam

* On October 3, President Filip Vujanovic announced that Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, ‘for personal reasons’, will not seek a new term in office as Prime Minister, but will remain the head of the DPS. On October 11, Filip Vujanovic appointed Zeljko Sturanovic, until now Minister of Justice and close Djukanovic ally as Prime Minister. Montenegro’s parliament must vote on Sturanovic's candidacy at its next session.